基于不确定理论的铁路货运需求预测

合理预测铁路货运需求是铁路管理部门建设、运营等决策基础。为应对铁路货运需求的复杂变化,基于Pearson相关性分析方法筛选出铁路货运需求的七个具有关键影响的因素,并结合不确定理论建立不确定多元线性回归模型,相应的铁路货运预测结果由传统单一值变成可能的需求区间范围,更加符合处于不确定环境下的铁路货运需求实际情况。选取国家统计局2004~2016年相关数据进实证研究,并与回归模型以及BP模型的预测结果对比分析,实验表明不确定多元线性回归的预测结果更加精确。     

A Hardy–Trudinger–Moser Inequality Involving LpNorm in the Hyperbolic Space

Let B be the unit disc in R~2, H be the completion of C_0∞(B) under the norm■ .By the method of blow-up analysis and an argument of rearrangement with respect to the standard hyperbolic metric ■, we prove that, for any fixed■ ,the supremum■ .This is an analog of early results of Lu–Yang(Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst., 2009) and Yang(Trans.Amer. Math. Soc., 2007), and extends those of Wang–Ye(Adv. Math., 2012) and Yang–Zhu(Ann.Global Anal. Geom., 2016).     

Mechanistic model for the dielectric spectrum of a simple dielectric material

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we perform molecular dynamics simulations of a dielectric fluidic material composed of permanent molecular dipoles. The dielectric spectrum features two peaks at lower frequencies than the system phonon frequency. The primary peak is observed at all temperatures studied and shifts toward lower frequencies as the temperature decreases. During this shift, the secondary peak emerges with a higher peak frequency than the primary peak. The secondary peak amplitude increases as the temperature decreases. Both peaks are dependent on the wavevector; in the small wavevector regime, the primary peak is shifted to higher frequencies as the wavevector squared and the secondary peak amplitude increases as the wavevector increases, but shows no shift in frequency. From the polarisation balance equation, we propose a model for the dielectric spectrum. This captures the spectrum features, and we conjecture that the primary peak is due to dipole moment correlations (Debye-type) and the secondary peak is due to the correlation between the dipole moment and a microscopic local field.     

A new non-perturbative approach in quantum mechanics for time-independent Schr?dinger equations

A new non-perturbative approach is proposed to solve time-independent Schr?dinger equations in quantum mechanics.It is based on the homotopy analysis method(HAM)that was developed by the author in 1992 for highly nonlinear equations and has been widely applied in many fields.Unlike perturbative methods,this HAM-based approach has nothing to do with small/large physical parameters.Besides,convergent series solution can be obtained even if the disturbance is far from the known status.A nonlinear harmonic oscillator is used as an example to illustrate the validity of this approach for disturbances that might be one thousand times larger than the possible superior limit of the perturbative approach.This HAM-based approach could provide us rigorous theoretical results in quantum mechanics,which can be directly compared with experimental data.Obviously,this is of great benefit not only for improving the accuracy of experimental measurements but also for validating physical theories.     

Aeroelastic analysis of cantilever plates using Peters’ aerodynamic model,and the influence of choosing beam or plate theories as the structural model

In this paper, the aeroelastic analyses of a rectangular cantilever plate of varying aspect ratio is presented. The classical plate theory has been selected as the structural model. The main point that distinguishes this study from previously reported research is employing Peters’ theory to model aerodynamic effect which is not straightforward. The Peters’ aerodynamic model was originally developed to provide lift and moment, which is only applicable to the structural model based on the beam theories. In this study, using the basic concept of the Peters’ aerodynamic model in addition to utilizing the Fourier series, the pressure distribution is derived, which makes Peters’ model applicable to structural models based on plate theory. This combination provides a much simpler state–space aeroelastic model for plates in comparison to the prevalent panel methods, which could lead to a significant reduction in computational time. In addition, the aeroelastic response of the plate with respect to changes in the structural model from the beam theory to the plate theory is evaluated. By using data from an experiment carried out at Duke University, the theoretical results are evaluated. Furthermore, the differences in structural models obtained from the plate and beam theories can be divided into two distinct parts, which are responsible for differences in bending and torsional behaviors of the structure, separately. This approach enables us to measure the effects of differences of each behavior separately, which could provide with a new insight into the problem. It has been determined that the flutter speeds obtained from the beam and plate aeroelastic models are little affected by the difference in bending behavior, but rather is mainly caused by the difference in torsional frequencies.     

基于贝叶斯网络的船舶港口国监督检查滞留风险研究

针对港口国监督(Port State Control, PSC)检查的复杂性和不确定性, 基于贝叶斯网络理论构建船舶PSC检查滞留风险分析模型. 以东京备忘录(Tokyo MOU)中2014~2017年船舶PSC检查样本数据为基础, 运用R语言bnlearn包进行贝叶斯网络的结构及参数学习. 同时分别执行贝叶斯网络的正向、逆向推理, 定量表示各风险因素与滞留结果之间的相互作用关系, 找出导致船舶滞留的高风险因素, 实现不确定环境下船舶PSC检查滞留风险的全面动态分析. 实证表明, 模型具有较高的精确度, 可为检查人员的滞留决策及航运公司的安全风险管理提供有效依据.     

初中化学青年教师常态课教学课例研究* ——基于弗兰德斯互动分析系统

弗兰德斯互动分析系统可以量化课堂教学中的语言行为。以初中化学一节常态课为研究课例,基于弗兰德斯互动分析系统,结合教师他评和自评,从教学目标、教学内容、教学过程和教学效果等4方面进行了全面的分析与评价,并根据评价结果,针对教学目标制订、有效提问、科学的课堂语言结构的营造以及实验探究的实施等提出了可行性的有效策略,从而为青年教师通过教学实践来促进个人专业发展提供依据。     

Blow-up of solution for beam equation with delay and dynamic boundary conditions

In this paper, we consider an elastic beam equation with delay, source term, and boundary conditions together with some suitable initial data. Using the Faedo-Galerkin approximation and some estimates, we get the local existence of solution. Moreover, we obtain the finite time blow-up of solution by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals.     

Sonoelectrochemical hydrogenation of safrole: A reactor design,statistical analysis and computational fluid dynamic approach

In this work, ultrasound-assisted electrocatalytic hydrogenation (US-ECHSA) of safrole was carried out in water medium, using sacrificial anode of nickel. The ultrasonic irradiation was carried out at frequency of 20 kHz ± 500 Hz with a titanium cylindrical horn (MS 73 microtip; Ti-6AI-4V alloy; 3.0 mm diameter). The optimal conditions were analyzed by statistical experimental design (fractional factorial). The influence of the sonoelectrochemical reactor design was also investigated by using computational fluid dynamics as simulation tool. Among the five parameters studied: catalyst type, use of β-cyclodextrin as inverse phase transfer catalyst, sonoelectrochemical reactor design, ultrasound mode and the temperature of the solution, only the last three were significant. The hydrogenation product, dihydrosafrole, reached 94% yield, depending on the experimental conditions applied. Data of computational fluid dynamics showed that a wing shape tube added to the sonoelectrochemical reactor can work as a cooling apparatus, during the electrochemical process. The reactional solution temperature diminishes 14 °C when compared to the four-way-type reactor. Cooper cathode, absence of β-cyclodextrin, four-way-type reactor, ultrasound continuous mode (14 W) and absence of temperature control were the most effective reaction parameters for the safrole hydrogenation using US-ECHSA method. The proposed approach represents an important contribution for understanding the hydrodynamic behavior of sonoelectrochemical reactors designs and, consequently, for the reducing of the experimental costs inherent to the sonoelectrochemical process.